Description
In the mining industry's pursuit of zero harm, distinguishing real safety improvements from random variation is crucial yet challenging. This talk demonstrates how classical changepoint analysis and Bayesian methods provide safety teams at Asarco LLC with rigorous tools to objectively evaluate progress towards our zero-harm goal. Using near miss reporting and lost time metrics, we will show how these statistical approaches help identify meaningful trends while avoiding misleading conclusions from natural variation. While the focus is on mining, these methods are applicable to other safety-critical and data-limited scenarios. No prior experience with changepoint analysis is required.